GET YOUR VERY OWN TEAM OF QUANTS - INVEST/TRADE LIKE THE PRO'S!
Why should only the large fund managers and investment banks be able to employ expensive teams of Quants? The subscription to our premium services for private individual investors starts at R1,399 per 3 months and ranges up to R3,599 per-annum (roughly R299 per month). For investment professionals, investing clubs with no more than 10 members or financial advisors, the fee starts from R9,999 per annum. Fund manager fees start from R25,000 per annum plus 0.1% per annum of the book being managed. Subscriptions are payable annually in advance.
In addition to being a quantitative research house, our services are highly action-oriented and targeted at self-directed private JSE investors (using their own brokers) and include:
1. World-class strategies for identification of individual growth/value/momentum shares
2. Long-term investment market timing to keep investors out of bear markets,recessions & crashes
3. Risk reduction signals to enable investors to "buy on the dips" and significantly enhance returns
4. Industrial-strength, high-confidence timing strategies for active short/medium-term traders.
5. Sector allocation models telling you what JSE sectors to be focussing on at this point in time.
6. Asset allocation models, advising you when to be in Cash, Bonds, Listed Property or Equities.
Our fees are not only highly competitive when compared to other so-called "hot tip" sites, but are negligible when one considers what our services could make (or save) you over an investment period and what it would cost to purchase the research we do. In addition you can write the fees off to your share gains at the end of your tax period. Your very first trade or signal to enter/exit the JSE will make or save you ten times our small fee.
APPLYING FOR POWERSTOCKS CLUB MEMBERSHIP
To apply for membership to receive all our premium content, download the Membership Application Form below (right-click and SAVE AS), fill it in and email it back to subs@powerstocks.co.za with "SUBS APPLICATION" in the subject field. The form below describes the various services and the Basic and Enhanced/PRO Subscription deliverables.
WHY USE OUR SERVICE?
No other "hot-tip" or "penny stock" newsletters or services in SA use quantitative research and analysis. They rely on "insider tips", "inside track", "fundamental valuations", "gut feel" and pure luck on some occasions. Additionally, we are completely transparent - you can see the real-world and historical performance of all our strategies and share selections in the Scoreboard page.
Secondly, we put our money where our mouth is - we have over R1.5M invested in our investment strategies with Sanlam iTrade and Standard Bank On-line Share Trading. Every time we research, backtest and create a new strategy for our subscribers, we spend at least R50,000 investing in a real portfolio with real shares - you don't see other advisory services doing that. We don't show you spreadsheets of "theoretical" best-case returns - we show you screenshots from our real on-line brokerage accounts. Below is a screen-shot from one of the many accounts we have that is used to illustrate how we eat our own dog food.
Not only do we play the long-term investment strategies with our subscribers, but we play our short term trading signals with them as well. Buy when we buy, exit when we exit. You make what we make - no theoretical nonsense and spreadsheets. With us, you never trade alone. Below is a sample trade account we ran with one of our short-term strategies.
Thirdly, we do our own research and we backtest the theory on the JSE - we don't take anything for granted, no matter how well it works in the U.S markets or how many books a guru has written on a strategy. We share the in-depth ground-breaking research with you, so you fully understand the logic and theory and appreciate where each strategy is coming from. That means no "Black-Box" strategies, but mathematical and statistically derived unsubjective mechanical strategies. Anyone following our strategy rules will have the identical performance, no unrealistic performances that are impossible for an average investor to replicate.
Fourth, we don't stop at our own investment portfolios or the backtests - we replicate model portfolios, one per quarter, for each strategy, to provide multiple rolling forward tests in out-of-sample data to validate the strategy is relevant across multiple market scenarios. The performance of these is tracked in the SCOREBOARD page.
Finally, we are obsessed with what we do - you can go and look at the NEWS blog to see how prolific we are with ground-breaking research in pursuit of investment perfection.
WHAT SERVICES DO WE PROVIDE?
Whilst we do provide a lot of public material, all premium content on this site is indicated by Green Menus and requires a membership password for access. The below services are unique and not available currently from any other investment services in South Africa.
1. Long-term investing Market Timing Signal
Our flagship product, is the PowerStocks SUPERModel Composite Market Timing Signal which is comprised of a Monetary Policy timing mechanism, a Momentum timing mechanism, an Economic Cycle timing system and a Seasonality timing system. It is suited toward long-term investing.
Using this timing mechanism to invest in a JSE All-share tracker fund (ETF) since 1978, would have earned you 113,863% growth (208,320% with the seasonality function enabled) in 31 years versus a JSE all-share buy-and-hold strategies' 7,633% growth. You would have done this with just 10 trades (30 trades with seasonality turned on) and would only have been vested in the JSE 48% of the time (60% with seasonality.) What's more, 80% of the timing signals resulted in profits and you would have avoided every major bear market. An example of the weekly updated SUPERModel timing signal appears below.
This system tells our medium and longer-term investors when its safe to invest in the JSE and what the expected future returns at any point in time are likely to be. It also signals our investors what phase of the Stock-market Cycle we are in and gives early warning of when the market is getting risky and exposed to high probability of a crash.
2. Long-Bond Yield Curve Investment Timing Model
This sophisticated yet elegant model utilises the relationship between the average yield on a basket of long-term government-backed bonds (such as the R157 and R186) and the average yield on a basket of short-term debt instruments such as 3-month treasury T-bills, coupled with prevailing interest rates to offer very infrequent but profitable buy/sell investment signals on the JSE. A JSE investment strategy using these signals would have returned 12,008% return over the last 26 years by being vested in the JSE 75% of the time with just 5 trades, versus a buy-and-hold strategies' 2,658% return.
The strategy successfully avoided every economic recession and its associated JSE bear market for a 4.51x JSE out-performance. In addition minimum holding periods are at least 36 months, offering maximum tax-efficient gains for the investor. Ideal instrument for the investor that wants to remain in the JSE for as long as possible to minimise tax liability and maximise dividend income streams. This is the last system to switch off the lights - when it goes bearish we liquidate everything and head for the safety of our bank accounts.
3. Medium-term Market Timing Signals for Traders (as opposed to investors)
Our JSE SwissClock and the Bullish Percentage Index (BPI) market cycle indicators operate on 6-10 and 4-6 month investing horizons respectively and are suitable for traders wishing to work with shorter more active investment periods. They are best used in conjunction with an ETF or other JSE tracker fund, and many subscribers use it with leveraged JSE TOP40 Options, SATRIX SSF's and Warrants products. However they serve as indicators of medium term market health and expected turbo-boosted returns and many traders use these signals to give the all-clear for their normal speculative activities on individual JSE shares.
In the last 10 years SwissClock generated 22 BUY signals with only 2 trades resulting in losses of -7.2% and -11.3% respectively. It would have generated 1,299% return versus a JSE buy-and-hold strategies' 223% return. The timing signal is published in our Weekly JSE Pulse and BUY/SELL alerts are emailed to subscribers to enable them to effect early trades. An old, outdated sample of the SwissClock signal is shown below:
The Bullish Percentage Trading System uses shorter 4-6 month cycles and can be used in tandem with the JSE SwissClock to deliver approximately 30 signals per year. The BPI strategy would have traded 19 times in the 11 years since 30 June 1998 and only have been vested in the JSE for 31.4% of the time. A total of 14 of the 19 trades (73.7%) produced a profit and it would have returned 714% growth versus an ALSH buy-and-holds' 277% growth over same period.
4. JSE Entry Risk-Reduction Signals for Investors and Traders
We have developed a suite of risk-reduction timing models that offer subscribers high-confidence entry points into the JSE based on adaptations for the JSE of several well-know international breadth systems as well as those invented by ourselves. Each of these models provides very infrequent but high-confidence signals but used in combination provide for at least one signal per month. The models identify periods with over 85% certainty when future JSE gains are likely to be highly positive. They all identify these periods using different methodologies and data. Investors use them to "buy on the dips" and traders use them for short and medium term trading. The systems are :
4.1 Breadth Impulse Timing Signal (BITS) (adapted from Gerald Appel)
4.2 STORM Selling Pressure entry-model (invented by us)
4.3 The Big Dipper Trough Locator (invented by us)
4.4 The Quantum-3 JSE Risk Reduction system (invented by us)
4.5 The Complete Turtles Trading System for the JSE (adapted from original Turtles strategy)
4.6 The Hedge-Trader (HT-1) system (3 variants) using JSE longs and shorts (invented by us)
All these systems can be used by short-term traders and investors alike to identify periods when it is relatively safe to invest in the JSE. The systems are all configured for high probability (over 80%) win rates and gain/loss ratios exceeding 10:1. You can read all about these systems and their use together with sample signalling charts here : The PowerStocks Trading Guide. The chart below compares the performance of some of the systems over the same 12 year period:
5. TroughFinder Signals for Traders and Investors
All our subscribers are also avid users of our TroughFinder timing system that picks out JSE ALSI absolute bottoms for major and minor corrections and commencement of new surges on the JSE. Investors use it for confirmation of continued bull market advances, and to "buy on the dips" in a bull market. Short term traders and speculators use it to catch up-trends early and put themselves into high confidence trades with JSE TOP40 warrants, futures and other instruments (geared or un-geared) that track the broad market. This system really comes into its own in major crashes, signalling high probability events of a bottom of an extended crash (classic market reversals). The last signals provided by TroughFinder appear below:
In the period December 1997 through to August 2009 (just under 12 years or 140 months) TroughFinder generated 74 major signals in 39 distinct periods of correction on the JSE. That amounts to one signal every 2 months (60 days) on average for contractions that occurred once every 3.5 months (100 days) on average. Accuracy was above 85%
6. SwingTrader short-term market timing signal
SwingTrader is a short-term trading strategy subscribers can follow that issues BUY/SELL alerts roughly once per month. We play ALL the trades so you are walked through each trade with us. You win we win. You lose then so do we. Full post-mortems are conducted on most trades. It is normally used with Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Single Stock Futures (SSF's) of the SATRIX40 or SATRIX RESI, or with geared warrants on the TOP40 index, or ALSI futures and mini-futures contracts where small gains in the JSE results in large gains in the investment. All these instruments are available from your online broker. SwingTrader signals from April to November 2009 are depicted below, together with the last 6 trades averaging a 83% trade-win record and 443% return in 4 months.
If you have never placed short term trades yourself and are interested in learning, read "How to Swing the JSE" and our "Short Term Trading Guide"
7. The Monthly JSE Pulse (MJP)
The most read publication on our website, MJP is published once per month and gives you access to cutting edge and unique JSE ALSH breadth data and our unqiue analysis to measure the overall health of the JSE.
The Monthly JSE Pulse lists everything you need to know about the health and expected returns of the JSE at this point in time, together with various market timing signals. Catch the start of every bull run, see how much oomph is left in the market and never be caught in a JSE crash again!
You can view an out-dated edition of the MJP, dated 9th July 2010 over HERE.
8. Unique JSE Market-Breadth Indices - JBAR Report
Market Breadth Indicators measure the overall health, status and trends of an Index or market (such as the JSE ALSH) by looking at price and volume advance/decline action of all its underlying shares as opposed to that of the Index itself. Breadth indicators are exceptionally powerful at predicting weakening or strengthening markets in advance and are also exceptionally accurate in predicting bull market tops and bear market bottoms as well as intermediate peaks and troughs. It is incredible that all the investment greats and top-flight US research firms and hedge-funds use this data but there are no software packages or other web sites that publish this information for the JSE private investor. Even more startling is how few local professional fund managers and pension funds put this type of data to good use. By placing these powerful tools in the hands of the private investor we allow you to compete with the best.
We create, maintain and publish the following unique important JSE Index (and its sub-sectors) market breadth indicators for our subscribers. Note that we back-test these for 12 years to calibrate them for appropriate JSE use:
4.1 Advance/Decline Line, Advance/Decline and Decline/Advance ratios
4.3 Up-to-down volume and down-to-up volume ratios for JSE and its individual sub-sectors
4.4 Buying Demand and Selling Pressure trendlines
4.5 Percentage JSE shares trading above 50-day moving average (Bullish Percentage Index)
4.6 McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index (direction and size of flow of funds into JSE)
4.7 The Coppock Breadth Curve for the JSE
All the above famous and respected indicators are high-resolution charted in the JSE Breadth Analysis Report (JBAR). Subscribers get access to JBAR on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays to keep them up to date with the status of the JSE and tide them over till the next WJP. You can read about JBAR and download a sample copy of JBAR over here : Using JBAR for risk-reduced and profitable trading/investing.
9. Special Events Alerts
About 60 times per year "special events" occur on the JSE, specific to some technical criteria associated with the JSE, that constitute "high probability" scenarios of an intermediate market fall or rise. These are not waste-your-time moving average crossovers, MACD signals or RSI overbought/oversold thresholds that have dubious outcomes, but high probability events based on our quantitative research into market-breadth data. When these occur, subscribers are alerted by our HeadsUP! email alerts to enable them to effect a trade the next day. A sample HeadsUP! email alert appears below:
10. Piotroski Investing Listed Company Financial Health Tool
The most popular and followed investing strategy by our value-strategy oriented readers is updated monthly into a powerful downloadable spreadsheet that ranks all the JSE and ALT-X ordinary shares by Piotroski score and sub-scores. The sheet has special filters that allow you to sort and filter shares in any multitude of combinations by market-cap, Piotroski score, Price-Book ratio, PE ratio, Dividend Yield, Return on Capital and Debt:Equity ratio. Used by fund managers to check on the financial health of any JSE share or by mechanical investors following dynamic or annually-rebalanced Piotroski strategies, this is very unique to South Africa.
The Piotroski Investing Strategy is a cutting-edge mechanical strategy and is the very first one that started this website off. It is also our oldest Model Live Portfolio incepted on 20 Nov 2008 and has performed very well against the ALSH index since then. Note how its return index is an almost straight line up without any of the volatility we have seen on the JSE
This strategy accumulates shares over time, but when companies release results they sometimes are disposed from the portfolio if they no longer meet the strict financial criteria. To see just how tidy a profit this strategy makes on share disposals, read "Piotroski 2009 Performance Report"
11. Unique JSE Share Watchlist (JSW) with automated screens
The PowerStocks Research JSE Share WatchList (JSW) is a powerful quantitative tool for our subscribers to analyse share action on the JSE and identify opportunities. It is based on end-of-day (EOD) data and gets published every 2nd day for our subscribers. JSW is useful for traders and investors alike. With it you can perform the following example tasks:
1. See which shares are out-performing the rest of the market (relative strength)
2. See which shares are trending and how strong they are trending (trend strength)
3. See which shares are making new highs
4. See which shares are making new lows
5. See how many trades took place in the share (activity) and what its liquidity is like
6. See what volume and Rand value the share traded in for the day
7. See what shares rose, stayed the same or declined in any JSE sector
8. See which shares are showing unusual trading activity and volume
9. See which shares are forming a trough and making a comeback after a steep decline
10. See the price changes of the volume-leaders, value-leaders, activity leaders etc.
11. See the Piotroski F score (financial health score) for each share
12. See if the share is a Magic Formula or a CAN-SLIM candidate
13. See what our Valuation Rating (based on P/E, P/book and P/Sales ratios) is for each share
All the above information is presented on a single page where they can be filtered and sorted by multiple fields to produce intelligent data targeted at the investors needs. The image below shows the 25 individual fields that can be filtered and sorted to identify opportunities in the market that would otherwise not be apparent to most investors and traders.
The buttons on the top of the page correspond to popular automated screens that find you powerful opportunities the JSE is presenting at the push of a button. This is without a doubt one of the most powerful and used tools in our arsenal and you can view a full tutorial with demonstrations on its use over HERE.
12. Cutting-edge mechanical investment strategies
We run monthly scans of the JSE for shares that qualify for various world-class and proven mechanical investment strategies such as Piotroski, Greenblatt's Magic Formula, O'Shaughnessy's Cornerstone Value/Growth and the highly respected O'Neil CANSLIM strategies.
In addition you get access to scans for highly profitable "designer strategies" developed by PowerStocks Labs such as PowerShares-A, RiskCurves BLUECHIP , TurboShares and Crash-Peak Recovery. Each strategy has its own dedicated Blog page that we maintain to track the history of that strategy over time as well as to provide important updates and guidance to using that strategy. You can see an updated dashboard of the performance of all these strategies on the SCOREBOARD page.
13. Cutting-edge research
We show you the JSE like you have never seen it before, and reveal all her secrets through cutting edge research that is not provided by anyone else for the investing public. Whilst the bulk of this research is currently public domain, any further research we do is going to be for subscribers only. In any event, the translation of any research into strategies that capitalise on its findings (such as RiskCurves, Crash-Peak recovery, Profiting from Advance/Decline ratios etc.) generally require access to premium pages to be executed on by a private investor. We are quite prolific with ground breaking research, with at least 2-3 major research pieces being published per month over the last 9 months - just go to the Public NEWS blog to see our track record in innovation over time.
14. And we keep adding to it...
We commission new research all the time and constantly launch new cutting edge strategies and risk-reduction market timing tools. For this reason, this page may very well be out of date. Go and look at the NEWS menu to see details of our new launches that provide our subscribers unparalleled "Market Edge".
Applying for PowerStocks membership
To apply for membership and receive access to our web site premium content, download the Membership Application Form below, fill it in and email it back to subs@powerstocks.co.za with "SUBSCRIPTION APPLICATION" in the subject field. The form contains the details of the various subscription plans and the deliverables as well as our terms and conditions.
Why should only the large fund managers and investment banks be able to employ expensive teams of Quants? The subscription to our premium services for private individual investors starts at R1,399 per 3 months and ranges up to R3,599 per-annum (roughly R299 per month). For investment professionals, investing clubs with no more than 10 members or financial advisors, the fee starts from R9,999 per annum. Fund manager fees start from R25,000 per annum plus 0.1% per annum of the book being managed. Subscriptions are payable annually in advance.
In addition to being a quantitative research house, our services are highly action-oriented and targeted at self-directed private JSE investors (using their own brokers) and include:
1. World-class strategies for identification of individual growth/value/momentum shares
2. Long-term investment market timing to keep investors out of bear markets,recessions & crashes
3. Risk reduction signals to enable investors to "buy on the dips" and significantly enhance returns
4. Industrial-strength, high-confidence timing strategies for active short/medium-term traders.
5. Sector allocation models telling you what JSE sectors to be focussing on at this point in time.
6. Asset allocation models, advising you when to be in Cash, Bonds, Listed Property or Equities.
Our fees are not only highly competitive when compared to other so-called "hot tip" sites, but are negligible when one considers what our services could make (or save) you over an investment period and what it would cost to purchase the research we do. In addition you can write the fees off to your share gains at the end of your tax period. Your very first trade or signal to enter/exit the JSE will make or save you ten times our small fee.
APPLYING FOR POWERSTOCKS CLUB MEMBERSHIP
To apply for membership to receive all our premium content, download the Membership Application Form below (right-click and SAVE AS), fill it in and email it back to subs@powerstocks.co.za with "SUBS APPLICATION" in the subject field. The form below describes the various services and the Basic and Enhanced/PRO Subscription deliverables.
WHY USE OUR SERVICE?
No other "hot-tip" or "penny stock" newsletters or services in SA use quantitative research and analysis. They rely on "insider tips", "inside track", "fundamental valuations", "gut feel" and pure luck on some occasions. Additionally, we are completely transparent - you can see the real-world and historical performance of all our strategies and share selections in the Scoreboard page.
Secondly, we put our money where our mouth is - we have over R1.5M invested in our investment strategies with Sanlam iTrade and Standard Bank On-line Share Trading. Every time we research, backtest and create a new strategy for our subscribers, we spend at least R50,000 investing in a real portfolio with real shares - you don't see other advisory services doing that. We don't show you spreadsheets of "theoretical" best-case returns - we show you screenshots from our real on-line brokerage accounts. Below is a screen-shot from one of the many accounts we have that is used to illustrate how we eat our own dog food.
Not only do we play the long-term investment strategies with our subscribers, but we play our short term trading signals with them as well. Buy when we buy, exit when we exit. You make what we make - no theoretical nonsense and spreadsheets. With us, you never trade alone. Below is a sample trade account we ran with one of our short-term strategies.
Thirdly, we do our own research and we backtest the theory on the JSE - we don't take anything for granted, no matter how well it works in the U.S markets or how many books a guru has written on a strategy. We share the in-depth ground-breaking research with you, so you fully understand the logic and theory and appreciate where each strategy is coming from. That means no "Black-Box" strategies, but mathematical and statistically derived unsubjective mechanical strategies. Anyone following our strategy rules will have the identical performance, no unrealistic performances that are impossible for an average investor to replicate.
Fourth, we don't stop at our own investment portfolios or the backtests - we replicate model portfolios, one per quarter, for each strategy, to provide multiple rolling forward tests in out-of-sample data to validate the strategy is relevant across multiple market scenarios. The performance of these is tracked in the SCOREBOARD page.
Finally, we are obsessed with what we do - you can go and look at the NEWS blog to see how prolific we are with ground-breaking research in pursuit of investment perfection.
WHAT SERVICES DO WE PROVIDE?
Whilst we do provide a lot of public material, all premium content on this site is indicated by Green Menus and requires a membership password for access. The below services are unique and not available currently from any other investment services in South Africa.
1. Long-term investing Market Timing Signal
Our flagship product, is the PowerStocks SUPERModel Composite Market Timing Signal which is comprised of a Monetary Policy timing mechanism, a Momentum timing mechanism, an Economic Cycle timing system and a Seasonality timing system. It is suited toward long-term investing.
Using this timing mechanism to invest in a JSE All-share tracker fund (ETF) since 1978, would have earned you 113,863% growth (208,320% with the seasonality function enabled) in 31 years versus a JSE all-share buy-and-hold strategies' 7,633% growth. You would have done this with just 10 trades (30 trades with seasonality turned on) and would only have been vested in the JSE 48% of the time (60% with seasonality.) What's more, 80% of the timing signals resulted in profits and you would have avoided every major bear market. An example of the weekly updated SUPERModel timing signal appears below.
This system tells our medium and longer-term investors when its safe to invest in the JSE and what the expected future returns at any point in time are likely to be. It also signals our investors what phase of the Stock-market Cycle we are in and gives early warning of when the market is getting risky and exposed to high probability of a crash.
2. Long-Bond Yield Curve Investment Timing Model
This sophisticated yet elegant model utilises the relationship between the average yield on a basket of long-term government-backed bonds (such as the R157 and R186) and the average yield on a basket of short-term debt instruments such as 3-month treasury T-bills, coupled with prevailing interest rates to offer very infrequent but profitable buy/sell investment signals on the JSE. A JSE investment strategy using these signals would have returned 12,008% return over the last 26 years by being vested in the JSE 75% of the time with just 5 trades, versus a buy-and-hold strategies' 2,658% return.
The strategy successfully avoided every economic recession and its associated JSE bear market for a 4.51x JSE out-performance. In addition minimum holding periods are at least 36 months, offering maximum tax-efficient gains for the investor. Ideal instrument for the investor that wants to remain in the JSE for as long as possible to minimise tax liability and maximise dividend income streams. This is the last system to switch off the lights - when it goes bearish we liquidate everything and head for the safety of our bank accounts.
3. Medium-term Market Timing Signals for Traders (as opposed to investors)
Our JSE SwissClock and the Bullish Percentage Index (BPI) market cycle indicators operate on 6-10 and 4-6 month investing horizons respectively and are suitable for traders wishing to work with shorter more active investment periods. They are best used in conjunction with an ETF or other JSE tracker fund, and many subscribers use it with leveraged JSE TOP40 Options, SATRIX SSF's and Warrants products. However they serve as indicators of medium term market health and expected turbo-boosted returns and many traders use these signals to give the all-clear for their normal speculative activities on individual JSE shares.
In the last 10 years SwissClock generated 22 BUY signals with only 2 trades resulting in losses of -7.2% and -11.3% respectively. It would have generated 1,299% return versus a JSE buy-and-hold strategies' 223% return. The timing signal is published in our Weekly JSE Pulse and BUY/SELL alerts are emailed to subscribers to enable them to effect early trades. An old, outdated sample of the SwissClock signal is shown below:
The Bullish Percentage Trading System uses shorter 4-6 month cycles and can be used in tandem with the JSE SwissClock to deliver approximately 30 signals per year. The BPI strategy would have traded 19 times in the 11 years since 30 June 1998 and only have been vested in the JSE for 31.4% of the time. A total of 14 of the 19 trades (73.7%) produced a profit and it would have returned 714% growth versus an ALSH buy-and-holds' 277% growth over same period.
4. JSE Entry Risk-Reduction Signals for Investors and Traders
We have developed a suite of risk-reduction timing models that offer subscribers high-confidence entry points into the JSE based on adaptations for the JSE of several well-know international breadth systems as well as those invented by ourselves. Each of these models provides very infrequent but high-confidence signals but used in combination provide for at least one signal per month. The models identify periods with over 85% certainty when future JSE gains are likely to be highly positive. They all identify these periods using different methodologies and data. Investors use them to "buy on the dips" and traders use them for short and medium term trading. The systems are :
4.1 Breadth Impulse Timing Signal (BITS) (adapted from Gerald Appel)
4.2 STORM Selling Pressure entry-model (invented by us)
4.3 The Big Dipper Trough Locator (invented by us)
4.4 The Quantum-3 JSE Risk Reduction system (invented by us)
4.5 The Complete Turtles Trading System for the JSE (adapted from original Turtles strategy)
4.6 The Hedge-Trader (HT-1) system (3 variants) using JSE longs and shorts (invented by us)
All these systems can be used by short-term traders and investors alike to identify periods when it is relatively safe to invest in the JSE. The systems are all configured for high probability (over 80%) win rates and gain/loss ratios exceeding 10:1. You can read all about these systems and their use together with sample signalling charts here : The PowerStocks Trading Guide. The chart below compares the performance of some of the systems over the same 12 year period:
5. TroughFinder Signals for Traders and Investors
All our subscribers are also avid users of our TroughFinder timing system that picks out JSE ALSI absolute bottoms for major and minor corrections and commencement of new surges on the JSE. Investors use it for confirmation of continued bull market advances, and to "buy on the dips" in a bull market. Short term traders and speculators use it to catch up-trends early and put themselves into high confidence trades with JSE TOP40 warrants, futures and other instruments (geared or un-geared) that track the broad market. This system really comes into its own in major crashes, signalling high probability events of a bottom of an extended crash (classic market reversals). The last signals provided by TroughFinder appear below:
In the period December 1997 through to August 2009 (just under 12 years or 140 months) TroughFinder generated 74 major signals in 39 distinct periods of correction on the JSE. That amounts to one signal every 2 months (60 days) on average for contractions that occurred once every 3.5 months (100 days) on average. Accuracy was above 85%
6. SwingTrader short-term market timing signal
SwingTrader is a short-term trading strategy subscribers can follow that issues BUY/SELL alerts roughly once per month. We play ALL the trades so you are walked through each trade with us. You win we win. You lose then so do we. Full post-mortems are conducted on most trades. It is normally used with Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Single Stock Futures (SSF's) of the SATRIX40 or SATRIX RESI, or with geared warrants on the TOP40 index, or ALSI futures and mini-futures contracts where small gains in the JSE results in large gains in the investment. All these instruments are available from your online broker. SwingTrader signals from April to November 2009 are depicted below, together with the last 6 trades averaging a 83% trade-win record and 443% return in 4 months.
If you have never placed short term trades yourself and are interested in learning, read "How to Swing the JSE" and our "Short Term Trading Guide"
7. The Monthly JSE Pulse (MJP)
The most read publication on our website, MJP is published once per month and gives you access to cutting edge and unique JSE ALSH breadth data and our unqiue analysis to measure the overall health of the JSE.
The Monthly JSE Pulse lists everything you need to know about the health and expected returns of the JSE at this point in time, together with various market timing signals. Catch the start of every bull run, see how much oomph is left in the market and never be caught in a JSE crash again!
You can view an out-dated edition of the MJP, dated 9th July 2010 over HERE.
8. Unique JSE Market-Breadth Indices - JBAR Report
Market Breadth Indicators measure the overall health, status and trends of an Index or market (such as the JSE ALSH) by looking at price and volume advance/decline action of all its underlying shares as opposed to that of the Index itself. Breadth indicators are exceptionally powerful at predicting weakening or strengthening markets in advance and are also exceptionally accurate in predicting bull market tops and bear market bottoms as well as intermediate peaks and troughs. It is incredible that all the investment greats and top-flight US research firms and hedge-funds use this data but there are no software packages or other web sites that publish this information for the JSE private investor. Even more startling is how few local professional fund managers and pension funds put this type of data to good use. By placing these powerful tools in the hands of the private investor we allow you to compete with the best.
We create, maintain and publish the following unique important JSE Index (and its sub-sectors) market breadth indicators for our subscribers. Note that we back-test these for 12 years to calibrate them for appropriate JSE use:
4.1 Advance/Decline Line, Advance/Decline and Decline/Advance ratios
4.3 Up-to-down volume and down-to-up volume ratios for JSE and its individual sub-sectors
4.4 Buying Demand and Selling Pressure trendlines
4.5 Percentage JSE shares trading above 50-day moving average (Bullish Percentage Index)
4.6 McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index (direction and size of flow of funds into JSE)
4.7 The Coppock Breadth Curve for the JSE
All the above famous and respected indicators are high-resolution charted in the JSE Breadth Analysis Report (JBAR). Subscribers get access to JBAR on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays to keep them up to date with the status of the JSE and tide them over till the next WJP. You can read about JBAR and download a sample copy of JBAR over here : Using JBAR for risk-reduced and profitable trading/investing.
9. Special Events Alerts
About 60 times per year "special events" occur on the JSE, specific to some technical criteria associated with the JSE, that constitute "high probability" scenarios of an intermediate market fall or rise. These are not waste-your-time moving average crossovers, MACD signals or RSI overbought/oversold thresholds that have dubious outcomes, but high probability events based on our quantitative research into market-breadth data. When these occur, subscribers are alerted by our HeadsUP! email alerts to enable them to effect a trade the next day. A sample HeadsUP! email alert appears below:
10. Piotroski Investing Listed Company Financial Health Tool
The most popular and followed investing strategy by our value-strategy oriented readers is updated monthly into a powerful downloadable spreadsheet that ranks all the JSE and ALT-X ordinary shares by Piotroski score and sub-scores. The sheet has special filters that allow you to sort and filter shares in any multitude of combinations by market-cap, Piotroski score, Price-Book ratio, PE ratio, Dividend Yield, Return on Capital and Debt:Equity ratio. Used by fund managers to check on the financial health of any JSE share or by mechanical investors following dynamic or annually-rebalanced Piotroski strategies, this is very unique to South Africa.
The Piotroski Investing Strategy is a cutting-edge mechanical strategy and is the very first one that started this website off. It is also our oldest Model Live Portfolio incepted on 20 Nov 2008 and has performed very well against the ALSH index since then. Note how its return index is an almost straight line up without any of the volatility we have seen on the JSE
This strategy accumulates shares over time, but when companies release results they sometimes are disposed from the portfolio if they no longer meet the strict financial criteria. To see just how tidy a profit this strategy makes on share disposals, read "Piotroski 2009 Performance Report"
11. Unique JSE Share Watchlist (JSW) with automated screens
The PowerStocks Research JSE Share WatchList (JSW) is a powerful quantitative tool for our subscribers to analyse share action on the JSE and identify opportunities. It is based on end-of-day (EOD) data and gets published every 2nd day for our subscribers. JSW is useful for traders and investors alike. With it you can perform the following example tasks:
1. See which shares are out-performing the rest of the market (relative strength)
2. See which shares are trending and how strong they are trending (trend strength)
3. See which shares are making new highs
4. See which shares are making new lows
5. See how many trades took place in the share (activity) and what its liquidity is like
6. See what volume and Rand value the share traded in for the day
7. See what shares rose, stayed the same or declined in any JSE sector
8. See which shares are showing unusual trading activity and volume
9. See which shares are forming a trough and making a comeback after a steep decline
10. See the price changes of the volume-leaders, value-leaders, activity leaders etc.
11. See the Piotroski F score (financial health score) for each share
12. See if the share is a Magic Formula or a CAN-SLIM candidate
13. See what our Valuation Rating (based on P/E, P/book and P/Sales ratios) is for each share
All the above information is presented on a single page where they can be filtered and sorted by multiple fields to produce intelligent data targeted at the investors needs. The image below shows the 25 individual fields that can be filtered and sorted to identify opportunities in the market that would otherwise not be apparent to most investors and traders.
The buttons on the top of the page correspond to popular automated screens that find you powerful opportunities the JSE is presenting at the push of a button. This is without a doubt one of the most powerful and used tools in our arsenal and you can view a full tutorial with demonstrations on its use over HERE.
12. Cutting-edge mechanical investment strategies
We run monthly scans of the JSE for shares that qualify for various world-class and proven mechanical investment strategies such as Piotroski, Greenblatt's Magic Formula, O'Shaughnessy's Cornerstone Value/Growth and the highly respected O'Neil CANSLIM strategies.
In addition you get access to scans for highly profitable "designer strategies" developed by PowerStocks Labs such as PowerShares-A, RiskCurves BLUECHIP , TurboShares and Crash-Peak Recovery. Each strategy has its own dedicated Blog page that we maintain to track the history of that strategy over time as well as to provide important updates and guidance to using that strategy. You can see an updated dashboard of the performance of all these strategies on the SCOREBOARD page.
13. Cutting-edge research
We show you the JSE like you have never seen it before, and reveal all her secrets through cutting edge research that is not provided by anyone else for the investing public. Whilst the bulk of this research is currently public domain, any further research we do is going to be for subscribers only. In any event, the translation of any research into strategies that capitalise on its findings (such as RiskCurves, Crash-Peak recovery, Profiting from Advance/Decline ratios etc.) generally require access to premium pages to be executed on by a private investor. We are quite prolific with ground breaking research, with at least 2-3 major research pieces being published per month over the last 9 months - just go to the Public NEWS blog to see our track record in innovation over time.
14. And we keep adding to it...
We commission new research all the time and constantly launch new cutting edge strategies and risk-reduction market timing tools. For this reason, this page may very well be out of date. Go and look at the NEWS menu to see details of our new launches that provide our subscribers unparalleled "Market Edge".
Applying for PowerStocks membership
To apply for membership and receive access to our web site premium content, download the Membership Application Form below, fill it in and email it back to subs@powerstocks.co.za with "SUBSCRIPTION APPLICATION" in the subject field. The form contains the details of the various subscription plans and the deliverables as well as our terms and conditions.
